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September 8th, 2011

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06:53 pm - (Very Slightly) Worried about Weather
Melbourne people (in fact, those on the East coast of Australia in general) - does it feel to you like we're slipping back into an "El Niño" weather cycle, after the "La Niña" we've had for the last year or so ?

To me, the chief sign of being in El Niño conditions is that weather forecasts tend to predict more rain than actually arrives - and for La Niña, the converse was true, the forecasts said "patter" and we got "splash!" and "splosh!" and "glubglubglub!".

And even though the Melbourne water storages are still slowly filling up, that's mainly due to the ground having being thoroughly saturated through summer and spring, rather than much winter rain being around. Not that I'm wishing for too much rain, but the storages have just limped back up over 60%, it would be a pity to return to the conditions where we lost 10-20% in a year.

I guess I'll just wait and see what Spring holds ... fingers crossed that it's a good one.

(... alternatively, maybe we spent A Little Too Long in Glasgow, if you know what I mean)

Edit: We have a steel roof. The pattering noise I can now hear on the roof is ... irony.
Current Mood: calmcalm

(4 touches | En garde !)


[User Picture]
Date:September 8th, 2011 10:12 am (UTC)
Yes, I've thought that too. There was a report in the small paper yesterday (or possibly the day before, it's a bit of a blur) saying that most of Vic/NSW has had below average rainfall - the exceptions were in East Gippsland and some areas on the very eastern coastline (going by memory). Certainly farmers were saying that the expected rain had not eventuated, and this was after they'd lost all the summer crops due to flooding.

It really, really feels more like an El Nino late winter/early spring at present rather than a La Nina one though. With more green than there was in 2009, granted.

And the water storage thing worries me - 60% is great, but the Thompson is still only at 40%, and we've discovered before just how fast we go through water.
[User Picture]
Date:September 8th, 2011 10:42 pm (UTC)
Yeah and now it's pouring here. I'll try and find the article I was referring to, had no luck last night but I've remembered some keywords now.
[User Picture]
Date:September 8th, 2011 11:22 am (UTC)
It's a bit the same here in Adelaide. On the weekend they were forecasting rain all week, but we've had a few splashes and that's been it. And we managed one day of 27 while we were still in August. It's funny, because it was a very damp winter - not cold, but very damp - right up until a couple of weeks ago.
Date:September 8th, 2011 12:15 pm (UTC)
Yes, I've been thinking that too. I've got a friend here from overseas and in the two weeks they've been here there's been effectively no rain, unseasonably warm weather, unfavourable conditions to visit the snow and lots of sun so they are yet to experience any of the traditional Melbourne winter weather. There might be a little bit of rain this weekend but it doesn't seem like much overall.

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