History will show that I was completely wrong, and we had one of the wettest summers and autumns ever after that. Oops.
Anyway, I'm going to try again, this time from a cosy position in January ...
Now, it's not just that we've had a bit of a heatwave across the southeastern side of Oz recently (highest temperature I saw was 48.2 at a South Australian town called Wudinna - oddly enough, not all that far from Thevenard, where I spent my first two years), but rainfall is down.
Melbourne has only had 30-40mm in each of the last four months, and none of the big downpours that are usually part of the spring/summer cycle around here. It hasn't rained since the 22nd of December, our water tanks are running low (they get used for laundry and toilet-flushing too), and the garden is suffering.
What I'd expect is that once or twice a month, we'd get a string of days getting hotter, leading to a humid day with a top somewhere around 35-40, then a big thunderstorm would roll through and drench everything.
Instead, we're getting plenty of Adelaide-like dry hot days, sometimes followed by a cool change, but not the rain.
So far, the Bureau of Meteorology have (as far as I've seen) been cautious about declaring the return of El Niño - the last news item I saw suggested that they'd seen it start to form, then reverse itself.
But I'm going to declare it: El Niño is back.
Time to break out the drought-resistant gardens again, rather than the deluge-resistant ones we've needed for the past couple of years.
 Excluding the 54.9 recorded at a Tasmanian town when the bushfire passed through the other day, though.
Original post on Dreamwidth - there are comments there.